College of Arts & Sciences Research

Fourth-Generation Warfare (4GW) theory shares many characteristics of classical guerrilla theory (CGW) in security studies literature. Proponents claim that 4GW is a significant evolution that overturns traditional measures of military power, while critics counter that 4GW is simply CGW in an updated context. The two strategies are modeled in an agent-based simulation to evaluate similarities and differences in speed to victory and territory controlled over. Emergent behaviors are compared with historical data.

So-called Fourth-Generation Warfare (4GW) as described by numerous military scholars shares many characteristics of guerrilla tactics in the classical literature, as described by SunTzu, Wellington, Clausewitz, Mao, and Giap. Proponents of 4GW claim that its development has significantly altered the ratio of strength of industrialized and guerrilla forces, and thus the likelihood of "weaker" forces (as measured in previous military contexts) prevailing against forces assessed by traditional measures as stronger. Critics point to a lack of intellectual rigor in defining the salient characteristics of 4GW, and charge that it is simply a re-statement of classical guerrilla war (CGW) tactics, albeit with improved communications and propaganda capabilities, along with a social media cultural context.

This project, which is the topic of the forthcoming PhD dissertation of the author, models CGW and 4GW in an agent-based simulation using NetLogo software in order to explore the differences in time to victory and increased area of territory controlled of CGW and 4GW forces against their respective industrialized and information-age conventional opponents. Expected results include emergent behaviors that offer insights into the similarities and differences of CGW. These are compared to historical data to determine if 4GW is indeed a significant military evolution that threatens to upend traditional measures of military superiority, or if it is merely an adaptation of old tactics to a new context.